The comparison between the voter lists provided by GeoStat and the Central Election Commission (CEC) has sparked significant public debate. Both agencies have stated that the public is making a mistake in this comparison, as each counts different datasets, which naturally do not align. Therefore, we decided to explore the unprecedented support for the “Georgian Dream” party in the regions using a different approach. A comparison of data from recent and past elections reveals an interesting picture.
In 2020 and 2021, iFact also analyzed precinct-level election protocols. As a result, we had already processed data on how many people were registered in each precinct, how many turned out to vote, and how many supported the “Georgian Dream.”
We examined the results of the 2024 election and compared the emerging trends with previous years.
In total, we analyzed data from 15 districts over the last three elections. Our focus was on municipalities where the ruling party either received more than 60% of the vote or was defeated. We also included a few neutral districts to provide a clearer overall picture.
The districts we studied are Vake, Kutaisi, Ninotsminda, Bolnisi, Gldani, Khelvachauri, Akhmeta, Kaspi, Akhalkalaki, Marneuli, Aspindza, Dmanisi, Tsageri, Lentekhi, and Kazbegi.
In five of these districts, there was no significant increase in either the number of registered voters or in voter turnout, yet the number of votes cast for “Georgian Dream” rose.
For example, in Kazbegi, voter turnout was 2.5% lower this year than in 2021. However, “Georgian Dream” received 12% more votes. It’s worth noting that in this district, the number of registered voters only increased by 117 people, or 2%, over the last three years.
Turnout also declined in Dmanisi, but votes for “Georgian Dream” rose by 23.59%. In 2021, turnout was 57.33%, compared to 55.37% this year.
The same trend is observed in the Bolnisi and Marneuli districts as well.
For instance, in Bolnisi this year, voter turnout decreased compared to 2020 but increased slightly by only 3% compared to 2021. Despite this, the ruling party received 9% more votes than in 2021 and 13.5% more than in 2020.
The 2024 parliamentary elections reported several types of irregularities, including voting with someone else’s ID, issues with marking voters, incidents of ballot stuffing, cases of voters being given two ballots, and more. These incidents were recorded by the media, independent and party-affiliated observers, as well as international monitors.
For example, the “Young Lawyers’ Association” is requesting from the Central Election Commission (CEC) and now also from the courts to invalidate the data from 2,263 polling stations where voting was conducted electronically. The reason cited is a breach of voting confidentiality, as it was apparent to those nearby who the voter was casting their ballot for. On election day, media outlets broadcast live throughout the day, showing how independent observers at polling stations were obstructed from performing their duties effectively. The media also reported on agitators standing outside polling stations, pressuring voters.
A slightly different trend was observed in Akhalkalaki and Ninotsminda. Here, turnout increased by an average of 2% this year, yet the number of votes cast for “Georgian Dream” was 10% higher than the three-year average.
This unusual increase does not appear in the precincts in larger cities. We examined the Kutaisi, Vake, and Gldani districts.
In Tbilisi’s Vake district, 70 precincts were open this year. A total of 110,465 voters were registered, with a turnout rate of 69.6%, and “Georgian Dream” received 37.8% of these votes. In October 2021, during the municipal elections, 78 precincts were open in Vake, with a total of 103,827 registered voters. That year, turnout was 56.56%, and the “Georgian Dream” received 43.3% of the votes. In 2020, Vake had a total of 105,246 registered voters, a turnout rate of 59.85%, and “Georgian Dream” received 40.15% of the votes.
The example of Vake, Gldani and Kutaisi shows that the difference in voter turnout and support for the ruling party is not as striking compared to previous years. This observation contrasts with trends in Marneuli, Bolnisi, Dmanisi, Khelvachauri, Kaspi, Tsageri, and Akhalkalaki.
For complete data on all districts, you can visit this link:
Full dataset on Google Sheets
This publication was funded by the European Union. Its contents are the sole responsibility of iFact and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union
